tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24826572173740345972024-02-07T19:56:19.146-08:00OARNW 2013 Trip NotesNavigation and Weather for the OARNW Atlantic RowDavid Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-77599727587319393212013-04-04T21:46:00.001-07:002013-04-04T22:29:24.841-07:00Coastal currents off of MiamiAs we get closer to the Bahamas we need to start thinking about crossing the Gulf Stream east of Miami. On a first look, we see something interesting, but not yet sure it is real, namely a large pocket of light current due east of Miami.<br />
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We will have to watch this over several days ( 5 or 6) to see if this persists. Not sure it will matter but it is definitely interesting.<br />
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The data are from the <a href="http://cordc.ucsd.edu/projects/mapping/maps/fullpage.php?ll=25.549876,-79.63028&zm=10&mt=p&rng=0.00,0.97&us=51.4444444&cs=0&res=6km_h&ol=&cp=1" target="_blank">HF Radar measurements of University of Miami</a>.<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pk3pYc6DDtQ?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></div>
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View the video in full screen and watch inside the blue box. The currents in this box are either light, or actually flowing west, the direction we are going!<br />
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We will have to watch this. It could all be a complete fluke.... or even an artifact of the radar equipment... ie some sort of shadow. This we should be able to learn by calling the folks who run the equipment.<br />
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On the current page link above, you can click an arrow for more current data, then click a history button for more info.<br />
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If any one wants to study this, we welcome your results. thanks.<br />
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For an overview of ocean and coastal currents see links at: <a href="http://www.starpath.com/currents/" target="_blank">www.starpath.com/currents.</a><br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-36654311431520627632013-03-14T20:00:00.001-07:002013-03-14T20:01:56.991-07:00Just about back underway...The team is back underway, for the most part, though at this very moment back in some N-NW winds that call for sea anchor again. As noted earlier, this should be over tomorrow for more steady progress.<br />
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For the record, about 7 hours ago, they crossed the exact place in the ocean where they were 3 days and 16 hours earlier. So we have lost that much to these bad winds, simple as that.<br />
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For now we do not see anything like that in the future, but it is a good example of what can happen, and has to be folded into the equation of what might happen if another front passes by them... Granted however that this last event was an unusual circumstance. But they also had a bit of an unusual circumstance just after the departure. No one can say they are having good luck on the weather.<br />
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They were at the cross over point at 0400 on Mar 11 and again at 2000 on Mar 14.<br />
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David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-74957545215166041832013-03-12T01:30:00.001-07:002013-03-12T01:30:52.436-07:00Headwinds till Friday!<br />
<pre>JRH position
06:00 Mar 12 UTC
21.4373 N, 48.3996 W
2h SMG=0.2kts, CMG=111
24h SMG=0.4kts, CMG=12
1763.98 nmi to Miami</pre>
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Still experimenting with ways to present the wind. Here is another shot. Again, just click open any one and then mouse scroll to make your own movie. They have strong head winds at the moment, so we are for the first time in the trip actually going backwards, but it wont last for long. Looks like Friday it goes light and will stay that way for a while.<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-83461764124244775892013-03-08T16:01:00.000-08:002013-03-08T21:24:35.984-08:00Friday March 8 Progress Report and Forecast<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRhm_MdxlkfVjFWgJ2921W53tnvXZiddTSQWy4NEJqeBAOCDRyObEg0UEmH30-IEDq8CerVpSAXHo4Z3gwofihtzRnga0sUAfSutGUKtVlSEBrIrHai0GDjgNXewyzzM5fUoswaBzrOAGr/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-03-08+at+4.20.21+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRhm_MdxlkfVjFWgJ2921W53tnvXZiddTSQWy4NEJqeBAOCDRyObEg0UEmH30-IEDq8CerVpSAXHo4Z3gwofihtzRnga0sUAfSutGUKtVlSEBrIrHai0GDjgNXewyzzM5fUoswaBzrOAGr/s640/Screen+Shot+2013-03-08+at+4.20.21+PM.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">pins mark 00z positions each day</td></tr>
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JRH position <br />
22:40 Mar 08 UTC <br />
19.9596 N, 47.4486 W <br />
<br />
2h SMG=3.0kts, CMG=309<br />
24h SMG=2.9kts, CMG=297<br />
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1839.64 nmi to Miami........... at 2.0 kts = 38 days...... at 3.0 = 26 days<br />
<br />
About to cross 20N, and past halfway done by 90% of the ways to define halfway, and tomorrow some time, past all 100% of the ways…. not to mention that the Americas have been the closest actual possible destination since getting 100 miles past Cape Verdes, about a month ago. It is just that Miami seems like a nicer destination now than it did 1 month ago.<br />
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* * * and with a new record day of progress 2.9 kts at 297T<br />
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<br />
Multiple Congratulations!<br />
<br />
There is some strong wind north west of the boat and moving this way, but the bulk of it seems to be passing north of the boat. Below shows the winds they might get over the next week as this frontal system goes by.<br />
<br />
This will help them north for a while, but then most likely slow them down a bit when the wind veers around to the west. For now it looks like it would only be strong westerly for a couple days. So there might be time to hang out the sea anchor and get some laundry done after the past week of big push.<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/5CjQ8QaMTow?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe> </div>
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-18313312304359142582013-03-01T21:25:00.001-08:002013-03-01T21:28:50.019-08:00Weather OutlookThe JRH has light favorable air for the next week or so... if we stretch the forecasts, but this is not at all the case for the rest of the Atlantic in front of them, north of them, and south of them.<br />
<br />
We have friends in the Central America who are getting hammered at the moment.<br />
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For latest weather info that might affect the boat, see <a href="http://www.starpath.com/oarnw/" target="_blank"> tropical Atlantic weather</a>David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-87222993489031284092013-02-28T22:00:00.002-08:002013-02-28T22:08:27.950-08:00Almost Halfway There –– Past Halfway There<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">It depends on how you want to count it.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
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<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Latest JRH position is</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;"> 04:00 Mar 01 UTC is
18.3419 N, 41.246 W </span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2h SMG=1.0kts, CMG=302,
24h SMG=1.3kts, CMG=286 </span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">2204.59 nmi to Miami (about half that to nearest land in the Caribbean)</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span id="internal-source-marker_0.9636129153140043" style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">They started at Dakar, Lon 17º 31’W, with a Destination of Miami, Lon 80º 08’W, so the halfway mark is at Lon 48º 49.5’W. </span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">It is perfectly fair to say whenever they cross that line they are halfway to Miami, regardless of latitude.</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">On
the other hand... the Lon of the Windward Islands of the Caribbean is about 61W, which
would have put the halfway point to “crossing the Atlantic” in general
quite a ways behind them now, back at 39.5W</span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">It
has been tough slow going, but they are making steady progress and are
in this sense on the downhill side of a long trip. Good work guys! </span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"></span><br style="font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" /><span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">By
the way, their GC course is going to start *very* slowly coming down as they proceed, and now it is just crossing on to 288T from the previous
290. They have been doing excellent job on average course made good in unseasonally unfavorable seas.</span></span>David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-2947582165244716942013-02-19T11:20:00.001-08:002013-02-19T11:24:51.951-08:00Big eddy on the horizon... Maybe!You may well have detected that we are struggling to try to understand and be able to predict on some level the ocean currents the boat must navigate. We have mixed success. We did see a big eddy some days ago and there was definite evidence they felt some of it, but details of the prediction did not seem to pan out.<br />
<br />
Now we approach another monster eddy at about 18N, 40W and will have another chance. To see this one, first go to their <a href="http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2013/01/state-of-art-ocean-current-predictions.html" target="_blank">latest position plot</a>, that shows where they are relative to a zoomed in view, then go to <a href="http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2013/01/atlantic-ocean-current-data-and-6-day.html" target="_blank">6-day forecasts</a> and scroll the pics.<br />
<br />
This eddy has been there for many weeks now according to RTOFS. We have yet to get confirmation of it from other ocean models.<br />
<br />
Note that at the time of writing here (19z on Feb 19) the boat is moving at 4.3 kts to the west. If this is real data then they must be in a strong (>2 kts) current now. They cannot row that fast.<br />
<br />
You can check latest position and progress at <a href="http://oarnw.blogspot.com/2013/02/progress-reports-automated.html" target="_blank">JHR position update</a>. <br />
<br />
We shall see...<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-18934448092879828242013-02-17T21:26:00.001-08:002013-02-17T21:26:08.881-08:00Progress Reports AutomatedIf you would like to get progress reports of the boat that look like this:<br />
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<object data="http://www.starpath.com/oarnw/jrh.htm" height="300" width="500"> </object>
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You can use any browser on computer or phone and go to this page:<br />
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<a href="http://www.starpath.com/oarnw/jrh.htm" target="_blank">www.starpath.com/oarnw/jrh.htm</a></div>
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and then set a book mark. This updates every 2 hours, at 5 minutes past the hour. It shows the present Lat and Lon as well as the course and speed made good over the past 2 hr and over the past 24 hr.<br />
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On iPhones, you can press the bookmark button and create a shortcut on your screen, and then just tap that screen icon to see how things are going.<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-22616519940177131922013-02-08T15:49:00.003-08:002013-02-08T15:49:55.427-08:00Riding along on the Big Red BusThe team has been making excellent progress, over 3 kts right on the great circle route, but now they are taking a break on sea anchor till daylight. The winds are picking up and they have no moon at all till about Feb 15 (then 30% illumination). It is difficult to steer a good course in the waves when you cannot see them coming. <br />
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Even on sea anchor last check showed then drifting W-NW even with strong wind pushing them SW!<br />
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In short, they are ideally positioned in the large current eddy at the moment, shown below. They should get help from this for another couple days.<br />
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Looking ahead, there is even a much larger eddy down the line (picture below), which we can hope will still be there when the boat gets there. These mesoscale eddies can last a month or more in about the same place. They are rotating clockwise, with current speed in the eddy varying as patches of faster water rotate around the circle.<br />
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Note the picture above is a zoomed in corner of the smaller one in the bottom pic, SE corner, just west of Cape Verde. At the moment, 22z on Feb 8, the boat is in the yellow water just entering the red patch.<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-6661084133950246672013-02-05T19:42:00.002-08:002013-02-05T20:51:50.245-08:00Curent action on the horizonCheck the d<a href="http://oarnw-currents.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">aily current updates</a> to see that there is a large eddy ahead of the boat, and you can scroll down the images to see that if all stays the same, the boat will enter this current on feb 7 at 00z, which is thursday, feb 6 at roughly 4pm seattle time.<br />
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This is worth noting for a couple reasons.<br />
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First it might be our first real check of these current predictions, and second, it could be a very nice ride for the rowers. The red parts in the GE picture are 4 to 5 kts, so keep tuned in. Thursday is the big day.<br />
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The pictures below are the RTOFS predictions initialized 00z on Feb 5, valid for 00z on Feb 7 .<br />
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Note that the rowers have to hold the excellent course they have been making. If they fall off to 275 T they will miss the big red bus.<br />
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If they do hit the current it looks to be SW, but if they keep rowing 2+ kt to 300 T or so, they will make great progress to the west, and maybe even get to ride it up the other side. <br />
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David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-77338147939622132732013-01-26T18:42:00.003-08:002013-01-26T18:42:35.968-08:00Nice video of the startI originally posted this is the wrong blog. Now moved here.
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Great French video of the start.<br />
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See <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xx00h0_relier-dakar-a-miami-a-la-rame_news#.UQNx40SY-pc" target="_blank">dailymotion.com</a><br />
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....with some longish ad in front of it<br />
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For more video, photos and news, check out <a href="http://www.oarnorthwest.com/" target="_blank">www.oarnorthwest.com </a><br />
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<a href="http://dailymotion.com/"></a>
David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-57744793602893499732013-01-24T21:30:00.002-08:002013-01-24T23:58:17.949-08:00Progress report Jan 24-25<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyNYYM0dvSIangRuMB8wy7xmLbWdJZZoxCSWh7NkbhmrVpOZRTmhXqULA6gCKD8ob7P9VmVbOXu4kpwQev5Db48m7kSxZGx3snLGEgQVk4kZaGKEiQ8qRZnTnWnYLv-VTuKElRonf4W2rV/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-01-24+at+11.41.42+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyNYYM0dvSIangRuMB8wy7xmLbWdJZZoxCSWh7NkbhmrVpOZRTmhXqULA6gCKD8ob7P9VmVbOXu4kpwQev5Db48m7kSxZGx3snLGEgQVk4kZaGKEiQ8qRZnTnWnYLv-VTuKElRonf4W2rV/s320/Screen+Shot+2013-01-24+at+11.41.42+PM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The little blue dot is us at the moment. There is clearly a lot of traffic around, but just as we can see them, the ships can also. This is an AIS picture from <a href="http://marinetraffic.com/ais/" target="_blank">marine traffic</a>. There are receiver antennas on the coast who participate with Marine Traffic by sending back their live data to the Marine Traffic HQ. After they get 100 mi or so offshore, this will no longer work.<br />
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Team is underway and doing well in difficult conditions, not to mention that everyone has to adjust to the life at sea, which takes a couple days.<br />
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You can see their position updated every 1.5 hr at the <a href="http://oarnorthwest.com/" target="_blank">oarnw site</a>. click any position point to get more data. Making on average about a knot to toward about 300 T. Once things settle down and the wind and waves clock back around to the east, progress will pick up.<br />
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Check the <a href="http://www.starpath.com/oarnw/" target="_blank">wx map </a>to see that there is a trough over coast of Africa that has cranked the isobars and winds around to the north and freshened them–they who would otherwise be lighter trade winds from the NE.<br />
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These trough winds brings with them larger waves, which slows down progress. <br />
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My guess of the waves from the ww3 model is about 3.5 m from just west of north, which means they might be rowing with seas on the starboard bow... we have to learn later what real conditions are.<br />
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My guess is they might take a somewhat more westerly course when the wind and seas allow them.<br />
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<a href="http://oarnw-currents.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Currents do not become an issue</a> for a couple days i would guess, but we will keep an eye on it.<br />
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For next day or two waves are still predicted at from 350 (actually slipping a bit more to the west 340), but they should diminish. Sat down to 2.2 or so (down 40%), and by sunday start to move to the east, meaning from 010 or so. 200 miles west of you they are from almost NE.<br />
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PS normally we describe waves as the direction they <i>move toward,</i> but in our application it seems more logical to think of the direction they are coming from.... we will see as we progress here what is the best way to describe the seas in this application. Generally wind and waves should be from the same direction, but there are multiple reasons that get them out of sync.<br />
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for one, the wind can change directions relatively quickly, but it takes half a day or longer for the seas to follow.<br />
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Also if there are any prevailing swells in the neighborhood, they combine with the wind waves to make a combined sea state which will have some combined height and direction. Generally if the period of the waves are much longer than 12s or so, these are mostly swells, if less than 10 or so, they are mostly wind waves. The boat is now experiencing something in between these two ends.<br />
<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-58511280732997263862013-01-19T14:07:00.000-08:002013-01-19T14:07:26.023-08:00Boat being readied for departureBoat is now at the staging port and being charged, tested, rigged ad provisioned for the ocean trip. So far on track for a Wed departure.<br />
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For the time being you can follow the boat at the earlier tracking page used for <a href="http://oarnorthwest.com/expeditions/salish-expedition-2012/salish-map/" target="_blank">Vancouver Island expedition</a>, but we hope to have another display running shortly.David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-38565635817580155202013-01-13T16:13:00.001-08:002013-01-13T16:13:46.038-08:00Atlantic Wave PredictionsHere are the wave predictions from OPC for the Atlantic (most of these long ones with long periods in the tropics are swells). Dakar at 15N, is just off the chart in the bottom right. The boat will have NE wind waves from the trades, riding on top of these swells. Very roughly speaking, anything we see that is below 7 or 8s will be wind waves, and the longer waves are swells from storms well north of them. Also the shorter period waves will not have much fetch behind them, whereas you will see the swell patterns clearly emanating from distant sources.<br />
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We have more specific data we will add here shortly. They are about to get underway, so we have to get this stuff together in the next week or so. If all works as planned, these data should be updated automatically every day. We shall see.<br />
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and the 48h prediction<br />
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and the 96h prediction<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-43539773121711751142013-01-07T21:55:00.000-08:002013-01-25T22:17:30.340-08:00Progress report with conchI have learned today from Greg that the boat is due to arrive in Dakar on Sunday, Jan 13. It will then be moved to the private harbor of the <a href="http://www.terroubi.com/?lang=en" target="_blank"><b>Hotel <b>Terrou Bi</b></b></a>, whose official address is on Martin Luther King Boulevard, which is rather of a surprise and coincidence, as they might well be departing near the US holiday of Martin Luther King Jr Day (Jan 21).<br />
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To see where this is, start from the picture showing Dakar as the westernmost tip of Africa, and zoom in.<br />
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Thus we can fine tune the departure point we guessed in an earlier article, but that does not change any of the rest of those early notes.<br />
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As I understand, the boat is now on the ship SANTA GIORGINA, which is, as I write, <a href="http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=636091020&centerx=-8.00865&centery=36.28413&zoom=10&type_color=7" target="_blank">headed into the port of Gibralter</a>, to arrive before midnight, tonight. After that stop, it must turn around and go straight on down to Dakar, I would guess. Dakar is about 1600 nmi from its stop in ALGECIRAS, and the ship cruises in the ocean at about 14-15 kts, which will taken them about 4 - 5 days, so we are right at the 13th. You can use the above link to watch the boat on the ship come down the coast of Africa.<br />
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So standing somewhere near Martin Luther King Blvd. in Dakar near Martin Luther King Day here the local folks in Dakar will hear Jordan's famous conch signal saying good by. Below is his signal saying goodby to Starpath at our last meeting, with Greg and Pat in the background.<br />
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Here is another view of the conch in hand somewhere before or after the Round Vancouver Island expedition. We look forward to hearing it Miami sometime not long after the Vernal Equinox.<br />
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So first rough estimates: leave by Martin Luther King Day, arrive by the Vernal Equinox.<br />
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Update added on Jan 24, to follow though on the conch. Here is the conch going off at the start with a neat video attached.<br />
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Click the pic to see the French video. It has a 30s ad in front of it.<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-43366453630140321212012-12-02T17:23:00.000-08:002013-01-11T21:30:20.473-08:00Welcome and Voyage OverviewWe will use this forum to discuss progress and related matters of navigation and weather for the upcoming <a href="http://www.oarnorthwest.com/" target="_blank">OAR Northwest ocean rowing expedition from Dakar to Miami</a>, across the tropical Atlantic. It will be the longest non-stop, self-supporting ocean rowing venture on record. It is scheduled to depart around the second week of January, 2013 and be underway for about 60 days. The last of the team departs Seattle for Dakar on Dec. 4. The boat is on a ship on the way there, expected to arrive about Jan 4, after several stops.<br />
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When we get more specifics on the boat transport, we will post them here. (The first post of this shipment was not right. Storm Sandy had changed scheduling out of NY that not all agents knew about.)<br />
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We will address wind, waves, and ocean currents, using the state of the art information. The boat will be transmitting back the actual data observed, along with much <a href="http://oarnorthwest.com/education/research/" target="_blank">other scientific data</a>, so we can learn how well these modern resources work in practice.<br />
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You are invited to post questions and comments here, and we will address
them as best we can. It promises to be an exciting event, with much to
be learned about ocean rowing navigation, much of which will apply to
any vessel transiting the tropics.<br />
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<center>
<b>Nav Notes, Dakar to Miami</b></center>
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Departure: 14º 38.6'N, 17º 26.0'W<br />
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Destination: 25º 45.5'N 080 07.4'W<br />
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Distance rhumbline (RL) = 3606.03 nmi on a constant heading of 280.7 T<br />
Distance great circle (GC) = 3561.55, with an initial heading of 291.5 T<br />
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At an average speed made good (SMG) of 2.5 kts, this is 60 days. This assumes an average distance per day of 60 nmi.<br />
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Currents are variable along the route, but usually less than 0.8. If we could find currents that average a favorable 0.5 kts, then we save about 10 days! We have notes in this blog on current eddies that will have a dramatic effect on progress, and it will be part of the study to learn about them.<br />
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Thus is is difficult to imagine the trip taking less than 50 days under very best conditions. Over the last several ocean rows, the average speed was 2.5 kts. These trips included times of much more favorable currents, but also times holed up with no speed at all. It is felt that 2.5 kts is a good planning speed for such a trip. That is, just a bit slower than an average walking speed, so this shows how long it would take to walk to Africa from Miami… which in one sense is not that long. It is a small world after all.<br />
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With that said, there are records kept of all ocean rows of all 4-man crews, and those that are mostly in the trades like this tend to average a bit higher, maybe up to 3.0 kts. For now we are still using 2.5 for our DR (dead reckoning). If we learn different, we will update this.
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At present there does not seem to be any route that would favor a direct one (GC or RL) whenever possible. Things that might change this are notably stronger trades to the south of the RL, or the development of anomalous currents.<br />
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The Cape Verde (CV) island group is about 300 nmi from Dakar, right on the route to Miami. The Great Circle route just skims the top of the Cape Verdes. The Rhumbline goes right though 70-mile wide channel over the top of the southern most island. The main first tactical issue (Dakar to CV), however, will be to deal with expected winds that are rather well north of NE. Thus there will likely be a struggle at first just to stay up as close to the GC route as possible. The wind frees up (goes more NE to E) as they get past CV.
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The chart below shows the GC route (blue line) along with the major GC shipping routes (red lines) where they might expect to see some traffic.<br />
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The green line is about halfway across, where they will be about 1,000 nmi from land in all directions, and on the way home past that.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Screen cap from Furuno MaxSea echart program. Furuno is a supporter of the expedition and we are grateful for their valuable contributions in charting and electronics.</td></tr>
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We will post a gpx file of these routes as soon as they are tested.... better yet, we will actually set better boundaries on likelyhood of ship encounter based on satellite records of actual ship paths integrated over many years, as shown below.<br />
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David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-10539142895630458382012-11-30T21:28:00.001-08:002013-05-05T21:05:41.055-07:00Irridium Sat Phone on JHR<i>We post this note here so the crew has a place to check for details that can be easily accessed during the testing and further installations on the boat. </i><br />
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<i>As of May, 2013, we have redone the main body of this article which can now be found at <a href="http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2013/05/a-few-nuts-and-bolts-of-iridium-sat.html" target="_blank">A few nuts and bolts of sat phone usage</a>. Please refer to that for the details that were once in part here.</i><br />
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The row boat JRH has several means of high seas communications, one of which is a hand held Iridium 9555 satellite phone (<a href="http://www.iridium.com/DownloadAttachment.aspx?attachmentID=600" target="_blank">User's Manual is online</a>). This unit can be used for email, downloading weather data, or phone calls, and that is in fact the easiest use of the device. Turn it on, pull out the antenna, and rotate it so it will be in the vertical position when talking, get a clear view of the sky so you see bars showing (just as with a cell phone) and dial the call: 001 area code number. 001 is for calls from ship to US. Other calls take different prefix.<br />
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Once connected the communications are excellent. Better than many cell phones, and almost always better than using the HF radio.<br />
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This model 9555 phone the boat has is not the latest model from Iridium, but the one just before latest, which is still popular and is the one often used in rental programs. Sat phones rend for about $200 per month, but we are fortunate to have this rental fee donated to the expedition by our friends at <a href="http://www.ocens.com/"></a><a href="http://www.ocens.com/" target="_blank">www.ocens.com</a> here is Seattle.<br />
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Ocens has also donated valuable software including Ocens Mail (for efficient sat phone email and data transfer), WeatherNet (for downloading weather files underway), and Grib Explorer (state of the art GRIB viewer for weather and ocean data). They have provided a valuable contribution to the project and we are grateful for it. I have used these products for many years and can attest to their dependability and great service for navigation and communications underway.<br />
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A very nice feature of the Iridium program is the ability to send short (160 characters) messages to the phone at no charge to sender or receiver. There will be numerous ways for followers and supporters to contact the boat and these will be announced on the <a href="http://www.oarnorthwest.com/" target="_blank">OAR Northwest website</a>.<br />
<br />For data connections, the computer is connected to the phone with a mini to normal USB cable. This cable can be up to 10 ft long. The boat has two cables, one 3 ft and and extension of about 6 ft. <br />
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Which brings up an important detail of data transfer. When you install the drivers in the PC that link the phone to the PC software, it associates a specific USB plug on the computer with a com port, and that com port is then registered with the software. Thus you must always be sure to <i>plug the phone into the same USB port</i> you used when registering the device. JRH has on board two identical Panasonic Tough Books (thanks to Panasonic for that donation). They are called Thing-1 and Thing-2 (The names might have come about as they are quite imposing devices, that can be dropped 15 feet and still function. You would expect to see them on the fender of a army tank, rather than in a row boat, but we can be certain these are rugged!) Each accessory plug is in a sealed bay.<br />
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Thus we have this reminder: when using Thing-1 to send sat phone mail or wx data, the phone must plug into the 2nd USB port on the right side. This is the third bay from the back.<br />
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If the cable is not plugged into the right port you will get error msg 633 or 634, but it does not say wrong port. You will get the same error msg if you end up with an unconnected plug. It could just say you are not configured properly, or something like that.<br />
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Normally we would expect the phone to work inside the cabin and not be influenced by the fiberglass overhead. But with the top of the cabin covered with solar panels, this is not at all clear. They will have to test this once they get the phone on the boat. And so, too, this brings up more nuts and bolts. If it is raining or rough conditions, one has the challenge of phone use keeping it dry. The phone can be put into a well sealed plastic bag and used outdoors in the rain. I have done this myself numerous times. But for data transfer we need the cable to the PC, and if conditions are rough we also have to have the cabin secured. I am not sure if there is an access port to the cabin that might serve to lead the cable through. <br />
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So it could be there are times the data connections will not be possible due to weather. If we are lucky, we might find a position inside the cabin that gets good signals. The advantage of being in the middle of the ocean (as opposed to at home with buildings and hills around) is you do have a full horizon to see satellites. <br />
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As for transfer efficiency, we have to accept that the transfer rate is not high. Nothing like we are used to on our wifi connections. I will add some more specifics here when i can, but first tests showed that sending one short email took 40 seconds, and a list of 5 very long mails, even to multiple addresses took only 52 sec. Clearly the best procedure is to use Ocens Mail to store your outgoing mails, then send and collect new with a single log on.<br />
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Weather data via WeatherNet download will be mostly in GRIB format, and my rough estimates are 3 days of wind data over a 10º x 10º grid will take up 10 kb. This would be the same for waves or precip or pressure. You can scale that to anticipate the file sizes. But all of the data is stored so you can after downloads look at the data file to see actual file sizes. We will make another note later on about use of downloaded weather and sea state data underway. If all goes as planned there will not be a need for weather downloads, as all this will be provided to the boat daily using state of the art resources from the UW Atmospheric Sciences forecasting team, led by <a href="http://www.atmos.washington.edu/%7Eangie/oarnwforecast.html" target="_blank">Angie Pendergrass</a>. Nevertheless, it would be good to practice using these powerful resources that will be available underway.<br />
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Ocens Mail is the PC interface to the phone. Your actual email writing and reading will be with the program they install called iScribe. A very nice simple email program. One pitfall is to write an email then send it from iScribe (which just sends it to Ocens Mail) then later decide you want to edit the mail. If you open it in iScribe and edit and send, it will actually add a second mail to Ocens mail to be sent. So to be safe, you can inspect your mail list before sending from Ocens Mail menu: Tools/Explore Mail to see what you are about to send. This is also the best way to go in and change a mail without risking a duplicate. Sending to multiple recipients does not increase air time.<br />
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Note we have numerous ways to track the vessel underway, but if it might ever be useful, you can plug a GPS into the PC and then configure Ocens Mail to send the Lat-Lon with every message. A nice feature of their software.<br />
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For our records, I just note that when we first got the phone the total call time was 5:32:44. This will let us check for the total time used to help plan time purchases as needed.<br />
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I should add that the Iridium 9555 system is a back up for the boat to its much more powerful Inmarsat Fleet Broadband SatLink system. This will take a note of its own. It can transmit large images and even video, and will serve as the workhorse for daily communications with and from the boat. It too has voice communications, but it it much more involved to turn it on and transmit. Like other high powered systems, you cannot even stand next to the antenna when it is broadcasting. It is not like a cell phone!<br />
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We teach the use of weather data under way in our <a href="http://www.starpath.com/catalog/courses/1804bc.htm" target="_blank">online course in marine weather</a>, and you are welcome to follow this blog for many practical exercises in wind, waves, and ocean current forecasts.<br />
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PS. When the boat capsized the phone was inside the cabin, but not in its protective case, so it was likely destroyed immediately when the cabin filled up with water. Had it been in its case, they could have called home from the life raft! We address this point in the <a href="http://davidburchnavigation.blogspot.com/2013/05/a-few-nuts-and-bolts-of-iridium-sat.html" target="_blank">new, extended article on sat phones</a>.<br />
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<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2482657217374034597.post-50008482150215024422012-11-21T21:29:00.002-08:002013-01-17T23:03:14.365-08:00Row Boats in Ocean CurrentsIn routine navigation we teach the importance of tidal and ocean current flow on our progress. There are the obvious cases of narrow passes with strong currents that simply cannot be transited against strong flow. You do not even need to go to places like Seymour Narrows with currents of 14 kt. There are many passes in the Pacific NW with peak currents of 5 or 6 kts.<br />
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Often we get distracted on figuring the time of slack water to get through these passes safely and overlook the much bigger challenge of getting to the pass at the time we want to. It does not help us if we know when the pass is slack, if we cannot predict our arrival time because we have 30 or 40 miles to go through weaker 0.5 to 1.5 kt currents that are changing with time. In short, the real nav challlenge is the navigation on the way to the strong current, not the pass itself.<br />
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Obviously, the lower the power of your boat the more important this is. So this is more an issue for sailing vessels that go only 5 kts or so, or any kayak or row boat. But to some extent it affects even larger vessels if the strong current pass is a long way off. Even cruise ships take Seymour Narrows seriously.<br />
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As the OAR NW team gets closer to pushing off from Dakar on the way to Miami, 3,600 nmi across the tropical Atlantic, we face the fact that this same issue of currents becomes a dominant factor in efficient navigation, even in the middle of the ocean. This is not like the Gulf Stream, as complex as that is–we did that back in 2006 when they rowed across the North Atlantic–this is mid-ocean without any well defined rivers of current like the Gulf Stream, which is well forecasted and the data easy to come by.<br />
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First, it is not even well known that current could be a factor where the boat will be now. If you look on a Pilot Chart, you will see that the predicted (climatic) general flow of the current is right behind them all the way across, at about 12 miles a day drift on average. But like most environmental data, the average is rarely what you get. It is even worse with currents than with wind.<br />
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The surface of the ocean, well away from large global patterns like the Gulf Stream or equatorial currents, is still subject to transient patches and eddies of strong current. In fact, the surface of the ocean, underneath the undulations of the swells and waves, is a turbulent surface, like the top of a big washing machine. Each of these hills and valleys of water give rise to geostrophic current flow as gravity pulls the piles back down. We can get very good data on the ocean surface heights from radar altimetry from satellites, and this data is then used in mathematical models to predict the currents, which are then either enhanced on diminished by the prevailing winds, temperature gradients in the water and other factors.<br />
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In short, with the help of many satellites (not just one) and with sophisticated computer modeling the flow of surface currents can be predicted in great detail. An example is shown below. These data are from the RTOFS-Atlantic model, operated by the US National Center for Environmental Prediction. A summary of all models is given at this <a href="https://www.godae-oceanview.org/science/ocean-forecasting-systems/ocean-models/" target="_blank">GODAE site.</a> We use the program Panoply (written by Robert B. Schmunk of NASA) to view these data.<br />
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Here we see an ongoing eddy just south of the rhumbline route of OARNW, marked with a red ellipse. The picture below it is zoomed in, and the one below it zoomed in more.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwJMZx16yXcDBkLY3qAFzHF8xYrN8Yy5ktOujbdV4Kfsw9mUp1ykvtl9Uw6wH0rLWdKHduSw7-yMUnAl7vOCZUWGP3UyLHLX_weXzj_asvBm8umKoW8Z4ynA6eec4qVCppG7R8VUm2qg99/s1600/eddy+zoomed+in.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwJMZx16yXcDBkLY3qAFzHF8xYrN8Yy5ktOujbdV4Kfsw9mUp1ykvtl9Uw6wH0rLWdKHduSw7-yMUnAl7vOCZUWGP3UyLHLX_weXzj_asvBm8umKoW8Z4ynA6eec4qVCppG7R8VUm2qg99/s320/eddy+zoomed+in.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The speed scale in m/s. To get kts multiply by 2 (actually 1.94). Thus we see in the middle of the ocean, a patch some 30-40 nmi across and some 300 long that varies from NE to E, all of which is flowing against the boat (which is headed west) at current speeds higher than can be rowed and peaking at some 5 or more kts. This is faster than most of the Gulf Stream!<br />
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If the boat wandered into this, or it wandered under the boat, they would be stuck. Their GPS would tell them they were going backwards, but they would not know why nor what to do about it. These systems could last weeks. Thus we have a wonderful opportunity to study these patterns. <br />
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So you see the fun we have ahead of us, which is two fold. First use the predictions as best we can to direct the boat to the favorable side of such eddies, and second to use all of the wonderful data we are gathering and transmitting back to UW hourly to measure these currents to see how accurate the predictions are. This data will be available to the public as well.<br />
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There are numerous models, so we will try to learn as much as we can about this and report our progress here as we proceed. We will return with another note on how we unfold the current speed and direction from what we measure on board. It will take input from compass heading, knotmeter speed, COG and SOG from GPS, plus true wind speed and direction to account for wind drift, and some (fudge) factor to account for the affect of the waves on boat speed. (We monitor the pitch and roll of the boat at all times, and when it surfs down a wave, the bow will go down at a steeper trim than when just crossing a wave without surfing, and the acceleration shows up in the speed records.)<br />
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We can also now follow drifting buoys to get more info on the currents as well. See note on our <a href="http://www.starpath.com/oarnw/oarnw_currents.htm" target="_blank">OARNW Ocean Currents page</a>. <br />
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We can now overlay these data onto Google Earth, along with the location of the boat, winds and waves, to get a full dynamic, near live view of the conditions. The data below are from Nov 18, 2012 1400z. It shows strong eddies north and south of the Cape Verdes. Color code for speed is the same as above, ie red is about 5 kts! These test data are compliments of mercator-ocean.fr (thank you), again processed and displayed using Panoply.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7KEH6w0tjpV0l9QTF4KvOm3HTbgmYSz0YUiK6TSJSxCjaKoKrNKiLpXoT7aIaOmfXeJnNocfNHfr8a1IM4euh2Rzv7NuTaJ93JQ2mFBl4XCqOkdRAT_GbpaMBftUNQlvsTG7KfqbC3cIo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-11-30+at+11.11.26+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7KEH6w0tjpV0l9QTF4KvOm3HTbgmYSz0YUiK6TSJSxCjaKoKrNKiLpXoT7aIaOmfXeJnNocfNHfr8a1IM4euh2Rzv7NuTaJ93JQ2mFBl4XCqOkdRAT_GbpaMBftUNQlvsTG7KfqbC3cIo/s400/Screen+Shot+2012-11-30+at+11.11.26+PM.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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For further information on mesoscale ocean currents see the text and many great links in this article from <a href="http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/applications/ocean/mesoscale-circulation.html" target="_blank">Aviso</a>. It is an excellent overview with many specific examples.<br />
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One of the things you will learn from surfing around the Aviso site is that these anomalous current eddies are not common (could we guess that from the name?) and not uniformly distributed around the world's oceans. There are places they occur more often that others. A couple interesting ones are the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Cape of Good Hope, neither of which is related to our trip. The Aviso links have the discussion and maps.<br />
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To see how these statistics might affect our trip, we first note the terminology: cyclonic eddies are those spinning like Lows, that is counterclockwise in the NH; and anticyclonic eddies spin clockwise, like Highs. The example we show above is an anticyclonic current eddy. Here are pictures that compile location statistics over many years for each type. These pictures are extracted from larger pictures at Aviso.<br />
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To show up in these data below, the eddies had to persist for at least 18 weeks, which is quite a long time. Both types drift slowly to the west at 4 to 5 nmi per day. We may well end up chasing some, just has we had to chase Gulf Stream meanders in 2006, which typically move rather faster than these eddies. A few days of extra hard work could give the boat a nice ride for a week if we find a good one.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1YP_yAzOpTduL3jyNlUEkoSJXa6OwxEbs___pLRhTY6K7mZGob4HVhtDnSyeEq81DZWKda6ytr1Td1V9_zP2-A-hptmqcSHCCOiWa2FdK35w34tUZXe8IQu62-QehtfSEv2Ui4bnUgfUK/s1600/oarnw_anti_cyclone_eddies.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="139" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1YP_yAzOpTduL3jyNlUEkoSJXa6OwxEbs___pLRhTY6K7mZGob4HVhtDnSyeEq81DZWKda6ytr1Td1V9_zP2-A-hptmqcSHCCOiWa2FdK35w34tUZXe8IQu62-QehtfSEv2Ui4bnUgfUK/s320/oarnw_anti_cyclone_eddies.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Anticyclonic eddy statistical locations and tracks.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixva_56EbwH-ZvobQVjri1drOh4wefo_jswctji-t_nmlJpt-lEiboKSC7ZYenXjWI0v4n0iLoyzu3JjBf7bMN5Cv6XLPSMWuhneM2fhKInFeVaAXVxrEMIfpZMbpxqtY07PtHATx4iYwa/s1600/oarnw_cyclonic_eddies.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="135" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixva_56EbwH-ZvobQVjri1drOh4wefo_jswctji-t_nmlJpt-lEiboKSC7ZYenXjWI0v4n0iLoyzu3JjBf7bMN5Cv6XLPSMWuhneM2fhKInFeVaAXVxrEMIfpZMbpxqtY07PtHATx4iYwa/s320/oarnw_cyclonic_eddies.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Cyclonic eddies.</td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr>
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These just give us some idea of the probabilities. The one we showed above, for example, is in a region that does not show any activity at all. We can only conclude that we are more likely to encounter these on the second half of the voyage more than on the first half. However, a row boat is strongly affected by any of them, so we will be watching at all times.<br />
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We still have no direct information that these forecasts are valid and practical on the level we care about. This will be one of the interesting outcomes of the voyage.<br />
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We have more information on ocean currents at <a href="http://www.starpath.com/currents." target="_blank">www.starpath.com/currents.</a><br />
<br />David Burchhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13413234790483329339noreply@blogger.com1